Advancing National Fire Danger Forecasting through Geoinformatics

Abstract. With increasing climate variability, the risk of forest fires in northern Europe has risen substantially. Accurate, spatially explicit fire danger assessments are crucial for supporting operational decision-making by national authorities. Traditionally, Estonia has relied on the Nesterov index—a simplified fire danger metric derived from meteorological observations recorded at only 23 stations. However, this method offers limited spatial resolution and does not account for several key meteorological drivers. This paper presents the implementation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system within the Estonian meteorological service, carried out under the RITA (2019–2020) state-commissioned research programme and the 2023–2032 EU LIFE-SIP AdaptEst project.

This development included high-resolution (1 × 1 km) raster-based FWI computation, adaptation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs for FWI inputs, statistical comparison between Nesterov and FWI indices, classification calibration using historical fire events, and the design of visualisation and web-based operational tools. The results showed strong statistical correspondence between the two indices (correlation coefficients of 0.7–0.8), while the FWI system offers greater temporal responsiveness, finer spatial resolution, and greater operational relevance. In addition, the paper outlines the consultation process between the involved parties to define fire hazard classes tailored to Estonian environmental conditions, as well as the implications of these definitions for future fire risk forecasting and risk management.