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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">AGILE-GISS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>AGILE: GIScience Series</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">AGILE-GISS</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">AGILE GIScience Ser.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2700-8150</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/agile-giss-7-39-2026</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Advancing National Fire Danger Forecasting through Geoinformatics</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sagris</surname>
<given-names>Valentina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oja</surname>
<given-names>Tõnu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muru</surname>
<given-names>Merle</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4422-2639</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<elocation-id>39</elocation-id>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Valentina Sagris et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://agile-giss.copernicus.org/articles/7/39/2026/agile-giss-7-39-2026.html">This article is available from https://agile-giss.copernicus.org/articles/7/39/2026/agile-giss-7-39-2026.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://agile-giss.copernicus.org/articles/7/39/2026/agile-giss-7-39-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://agile-giss.copernicus.org/articles/7/39/2026/agile-giss-7-39-2026.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>With increasing climate variability, the risk of forest fires in northern Europe has risen substantially. Accurate, spatially explicit fire danger assessments are crucial for supporting operational decision-making by national authorities. Traditionally, Estonia has relied on the Nesterov index&amp;mdash;a simplified fire danger metric derived from meteorological observations recorded at only 23 stations. However, this method offers limited spatial resolution and does not account for several key meteorological drivers. This paper presents the implementation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system within the Estonian meteorological service, carried out under the RITA (2019&amp;ndash;2020) state-commissioned research programme and the 2023&amp;ndash;2032 EU LIFE-SIP AdaptEst project.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This development included high-resolution (1 &amp;times; 1 km) raster-based FWI computation, adaptation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs for FWI inputs, statistical comparison between Nesterov and FWI indices, classification calibration using historical fire events, and the design of visualisation and web-based operational tools. The results showed strong statistical correspondence between the two indices (correlation coefficients of 0.7&amp;ndash;0.8), while the FWI system offers greater temporal responsiveness, finer spatial resolution, and greater operational relevance. In addition, the paper outlines the consultation process between the involved parties to define fire hazard classes tailored to Estonian environmental conditions, as well as the implications of these definitions for future fire risk forecasting and risk management.</p>
</abstract>
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