Evaluating the role of human and environmental factors causing the distribution of invasive plant species in the cantons of Vaud and Neuchâtel in Switzerland

Abstract. Invasive alien plant species are an increasing concern in many countries due to their negative impacts on local ecosystems, human health, infrastructure, and agriculture, to name a few. In Switzerland, substantial financial resources are allocated each year to combat the spread and eradicate these invasive species. Understanding their spatial distribution through species distribution modeling is crucial for improving management interventions. This study aims to examine the role of environmental and human factors in predicting the distribution of three invasive plant species (Prunus laurocerasus, Buddleja davidii, and Robinia pseudoacacia) in the Cantons of Vaud and Neuchâtel in Western Switzerland. A random forest algorithm is trained, and the resulting model is used to assess the relative importance of various environmental and human factors in predicting species distribution. The results highlight that while environmental features play a significant role in generating distribution maps, incorporating human activity patterns, such as proximity to built areas, railways, and roads, greatly enhances prediction accuracy and leads to more robust models.