Using a Hybrid Semi-Integrated Spatial Allocation Model to Model Future Housing Allocation

Abstract. In this paper we present the semi-integrated land use model Land Use Scanner 2.0 (in Dutch: RuimteScanner 2.0) to model the future growth of housing in the Netherlands, by 2050. The modelling was done in the scope of four future scenarios which were developed for the Spatial Outlook 2023, a study carried out between the period of 2021 and 2023, by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). The scenarios in the Spatial Outlook 2023 present different futures of land use, based, among other things, on the Dutch ambition to develop sustainable land use and to reduce carbon footprint and natural resources depletion by 2050. At the same time, several socioeconomic challenges are central drivers in the Outlook, such as the housing shortage and the developing economy, as well as the progressive shift to renewable energy sources and sustainable farming, all placing claims on the future land use. The results discuss two of the four future scenarios and show both spatial and quantitative variations between the scenarios in the allocation of houses, indicating the importance of differences in living conditions and housing preferences. The possibilities of the Land Use Scanner 2.0 to serve as a tool for policy dialog and design, rather than prediction, is presented.